How eBikes May Affect the Dealership Model

[Rob]

Armageddon Motors

The Big Five motorcycle manufacturers are said to have 10-or-more-year-old electric bike prototypes tucked away in their R&D halls, industry-reknown UTV maker Polaris now offers its venerable, class-leading Ranger UTV in your choice of equally-performing gas, diesel and electric models, and companies such as Motoczysz, Zero, Brammo, and others have catapulted the electric motorcycle out of its home-brew oddity and commercially produced scooter-only domain and into the powersports sportbike (and even superbike) mainstream. Wow! Can the extinction of gas-powered motorcycles be very far away?

First and foremost there is eBike technology leader Motoczysz' Isle of Man TT Zero EV competition winner, EV technology-proving, Bonnevile record holding, non-production 161 hp, 160 mph, 150 mi range E1pc, a variation of which Jay Leno not long ago videotaped for his online show. Then we have the 6-speed, 54 hp, 100+ mph, 121-mile-range production Brammo Empulse, which Motorcyclist magazine likened to a Triumph Street Triple in ergos, feel, and overall character (largely due to its clutch and transmission), if not power. And finally, though a car, supremely significant is Road and Track's April 2013 declaration that the new 416 hp Tesla S electric car out-accelerates a 640 hp Viper SRT! Taken together, and especially happening in such a short time, these make the future of powersports look very new, very fresh, and quite interesting indeed! The bikes look even better. eBikes, once as utilitarian as a wheelbarrow full of batteries, actually are beginning to appeal now rather than repulse. What a time we live in!

What this means for the traditional powersports industry, that has witnessed the eBike evolution from crude, backyard-invented forklift motor powered hopefuls and piddly, 30/50 (mph/mile range) ambitiously-marketed eScooters, is hard to say. Those of us who have lived our whole lives in this industry are feeling a mixture of excitement and apprehension. There is the excitement that something really new, really world-changing, and good for society and well-being, is happening that will mark the lives of all who come after us. And we know this is inevitable, not to mention a good thing. But there is also apprehension in that we who depend on the industry for our livelihood don't really know where we are going to fit in when this brave new world arrives. Maybe those of us committed to vintage restoration should find a way to put the word "Armageddon" into our dbas.

It's interesting that this revolution within the internal combustion gas engine passenger vehicle industry is happening at the very same time as a slower but equally encouraging evolution of how powersports companies do business. Like businesses everywhere, powersports dealers are finally understanding that their business focus really is people, not machines. Customers and culture, not major units. It's interesting because once the eVehicle begins to significantly displace its far-more-complex internal combustion forerunner, much of the industry's service infrastructure will dissolve, leaving fewer, more efficient, less man-hour intensive service scenarios remaining, and thus a shift will take place toward service as it really is -- serving people, nurturing human relationships. This is of course what the best dealers are already doing. But one day the energies that the average shop owner presently puts into running an incredibly complex workshop will be freed to be leveraged toward better meeting their customer's needs, and more and more, dealers and repair shops will be tuned into customers instead of merely tuning motorcycles.

© Mike Nixon
http://www.justcarbs.com/articles/armag ... otors.html

From an otherwise information-packed website mostly about Japanese bikes (Honda in particular)
http://www.motorcycleproject.com/index.html#101

[BobW]

If the range increased tomorrow, the e-bike would make a good choice for commuters. The real problem is where does the electricity to power these bikes come from? Power companies will increase generating capacity when it is economically viable. It will be years before the capacity to replace petroleum power with electrical power can come on line.
As far as clean emissions, most electric vehicles are essentially coal powered. The only new nuclear electric plants in decades are still behind schedule and will not be on line for another few years. They will only add generating power for a relatively few. Solar and wind are both clean, but it will be years before they take over power production if ever.
Charging could be limited to after midnight hours when the load is at a minimum but this will not solve the total problem.
Savannah, GA has a new program which allows homeowners to essentially lease solar power systems with the sale of power to the utility to offset costs. It will be interesting to follow this.
If only all technology would progress at the same speed. We will see some tremendous changes in the next decade. I hope to live to see it.

Bob

[Zombie Master]

I hope the E bike gets the range and suspension needed for real world riding. The Zero is close, but I still need a range of 300 miles to feel comfortable in my local. I'll be so glad to not deal with oil change, tune up with valve adjustments, filters, exhaust, coolant....ect. Still hope I can ride my airhead though.

[Duane Ausherman]

The Zero rider, Terry Hershner, who is setting all of the records works with Craig Vetter. I have met him a few times at Craig's place. He isn't even operating at the cutting edge yet. Far more things are coming down the pike in the next few years.

Charging an EV can be as fast as gassing up with our regular fuel. Solar electric can easily provide the energy. I get regular updates on the latest stuff coming out sometime, maybe, eventually.......... we hope. Think, salt water flow batteries.

[Major Softie]

Think, salt water flow batteries.

Well, that was cryptic.

"Charging an EV can be as fast as gassing up with our regular fuel"? "Can be" is the pivotal term there. It's not. It's totally not. It "can be," perhaps, someday, but it isn't now - at least not unless someone has a vehicle running on some capacitor that I don't know about. Batteries just don't accept charging that fast. With current (pun genuinely not intended) technology, the cell exchange station idea makes a lot more sense to me. It has the difficulty of requiring standardization in energy cells, but that hasn't been a problem in all the disposable batteries we've used for the last 50 years.

The Zero bike has a maximum claimed range of 185 miles on approximately 14 kWh's. I don't accept "maximum claimed range" as anything like reality, so lets be semi-generous and call it 150 miles of fairly normal riding. Since you haven't suggested anything about more efficient motors, that means that a 300 mile range is going to require 28 kWh's of electrical power. Filling my tank with 300 miles worth of gas takes about (and I'm totally guessing on this) one minute (6 gallons at 10 seconds a gallon). So, you're saying we currently have batteries that we can pump 28 kWh's of current into in one minute?

And, by the way, to put their numbers into perspective, maximum power on the Zero consumes 50 kWh's. So that means that it will sustain full throttle for around 17 minutes on one charge, so you'd better watch that throttle hand.

Their current system takes 10 hours to charge up 150 miles of range. That's 600 minutes: 14000W in 10 hours is 1400 W an hour - very reasonable on a normal 20 Amp 120v circuit. Your claim would be only 1200 times faster. My research shows their batteries as being 102 volts, so we can use good old 120v current as our input and be fairly sure we'll be in the ball park. 28 kWh's at 120v is 233.333... Ah. Pushing that out in one minute is 60 x 233.333... = 14000 Amps.

We're going to need some very big wire....

Or, your "flow batteries" are going to take how many gallons of electrolyte?????

[Rob]

Think, salt water flow batteries.

Well, that was cryptic.

Only as cryptic as you make it...
https://www.google.com/search?q=salt+wa ... 3&ie=UTF-8

[Major Softie]

Think, salt water flow batteries.

Well, that was cryptic.

Only as cryptic as you make it...
https://www.google.com/search?q=salt+wa ... 3&ie=UTF-8

No. Cryptic.

"Think salt-water flow batteries" is cryptic. They can't (currently) do any of the things Duane is talking about (as far as capacity, current production, and practicality in a motorcycle application), so it's very, VERY, cryptic. Not to mention that your link is to "flow batteries." "Salt-water flow batteries" is NOT a technology that can do what Duane is talking about. "Salt-water flow batteries" is, in fact, a misnomer. Here's a nice little piece blasting a company's claims about their not-actually-available-to-see flow batteries:
http://jalopnik.com/the-supercar-that-r ... 1637600538

If such things are actually eventually made to work, that would be great. But, as of now, they don't - at least not nearly as well as current lithium battery technology. One of the greatest strides forward for lithium batteries was not just the greater amps per volume, but the huge improvement in amps per weight. Flow batteries aren't close to that yet. If they were, we'd be using them.

[bbelk]

My two minutes of research on "flow batteries" makes me think there would be a way to charge them by changing the fluid. That could be as fast as putting gasoline in a car. Maybe thats the point.

My two minutes on salt water batteries contained a phrase something like "using the entire ocean as a battery" which brought to mind an image of the worlds largest fish kill - but maybe that is in the same category as setting the atmosphere on fire with an A-bomb.

[Ken in Oklahoma]

. . . My two minutes on salt water batteries contained a phrase something like "using the entire ocean as a battery" which brought to mind an image of the worlds largest fish kill - but maybe that is in the same category as setting the atmosphere on fire with an A-bomb.

Maybe with a really, really, really, really big A-bomb? I hear that our Sun is going to go nova after a while.

Ken

[Major Softie]

My two minutes of research on "flow batteries" makes me think there would be a way to charge them by changing the fluid. That could be as fast as putting gasoline in a car. Maybe thats the point.

It's definitely the point, but it's the size and weight per watt issue that still currently crushes such an idea. It doesn't mean there's not a future in such an idea, just not a foreseeable future.